NOAA 6 to 10 Day Outlook
Color indicates the probability of forecasted temperatures being above or below a historical average for the period.
Renewables, Natural Gas Use to Increase In 2015 As Coal Retirements Begin
Power Engineering | August 14, 2014
U.S. coal production is expected to increase in 2014, but natural gas will retake the lead in 2015 as coal plant retirements continue and natural gas prices decrease.
Coal consumption is predicted to increase 2.5 percent to 949 MMST in 2014 due to higher electricity demand and power industry natural gas prices that are 22 percent above their 2013 level, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Short Term Energy Outlook. However, as coal retirements begin, the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard, electricity sales growth slows and natural gas prices decrease, the use of coal is projected to decrease 2.7 percent in 2015.
The projected Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average $4.46/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2015, the outlook said.
Total renewables use will increase 2.1 percent in 2014, with conventional hydropower generation projected to decrease by 2.8 percent and nonhydropower renewables to increase by 4.8 percent. In 2015, total renewable use for electric power and heat generation will increase by 4.2 percent due to a 3.2 percent increase in hydropower and a 4.7 percent increase in nonhydropower renewables.
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to rise by 1.4 percent in 2014, then decline by less than 1 percent in 2015.
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PPL Plans 725-mile Transmission Line to Deliver Cheaper Power to East Coast
Utility Dive | August 14, 2014
Power shortages that like those during last winter’s cold snap that drove natural gas and electricity prices up could be reduced by the proposed line, according to PPL. The new line could also deliver electricity generated at new integrated gasification and combined cycle (IGCC) plants being built in Pennsylvania to take advantage of low-cost Marcellus Shale natural gas supplies.
The jointly owned PPL-PSEG 150-mile, 500-kilovolt Susquehanna-Roseland transmission line linking Pennsylvania and New Jersey's Essex County, which will cost $1.42 billion, is expected to be complete in June 2015, but does not resolve the reliability and supply challenges that would be met by the proposed 725-mile PPL line.
The new line is not part of the just-announced creation of Talen Energy Corp. from the merger of PPL Corp. and Riverstone Holdings LLC. The new company will have a 15,320 megawatt generation capacity and serve Pennsylvania, Montana, Maryland, New Jersey, Texas and Massachusetts.
Natural Gas and Oil Market Update
Natural Gas Gains After Smaller Supply Increase
Market Watch | August 14, 2014
U.S. natural gas supplies rose 78 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 8, the Energy Information Administration said Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected an increase between 81 bcf and 85 bcf. Natural gas futures got a lift after the report; the September contract was recently up 7 cents, or 1.9%, to $3.90 per million British thermal units. It was trading around $3.86 per million Btu before the release.
Brent Falls Fourth Day in Five on Economy; WTI Oil Drops
Bloomberg | August 14, 2014
Brent oil dropped for the fourth time in five days as the euro zone’s economic recovery stalled. West Texas Intermediate decreased after U.S. crude stockpiles increased last week for the first time since June.
Brent for September settlement, which expires today, fell 71 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $103.57 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:05 a.m. New York time. The more-active October contract dropped 71 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $104.35. The volume of all futures traded was 6.7 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.
WTI for September delivery dropped 40 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $97.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Volumes were 23 percent lower than the 100-day average. The U.S. benchmark crude traded at a $6.38 discount to Brent, down from $6.69 yesterday.
EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working gas in storage was 2,467 Bcf as of Friday, August 8, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 530 Bcf less than last year at this time and 575 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,042 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 270 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 58 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 239 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,031 Bcf after a net injection of 9 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 66 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 11 Bcf. At 2,467 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
NYMEX Natural Gas Week-to-Week Price Change
Natural Gas Futures - Five Year Price ($ per mmBtu)
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