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In This Issue

New England ISO Targets 2018 for Full DR Integration into Wholesale Power Market

Solar Eclipse Won't Leave New Jersey Without Lights, Power

Natural Gas and Oil Market Update

EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

NYMEX Natural Gas Week-to-Week Price Change

Natural Gas Futures - Five Year Price


NOAA 6 to 10 Day Outlook
Color indicates the probability of forecasted temperatures being above or below a historical average for the period.


Market Overviews

New England ISO Targets 2018 for Full DR Integration into Wholesale Power Market

Utility Dive | August 3, 2017

FERC finalized Order 745 in 2011, and in the ensuing years, the rule survived a series of challenges before finally being upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court. The lengthy court battle only ended just last year, and now wholesale market operators are getting down to brass tacks.

The New England ISO notes its recent filing "represents the latest, and final, in a series of filings that began with the ISO’s Order No. 745 compliance filing."

In addition to participating in day-ahead and real-time markets, demand response will be able to provide operating reserves and can participate directly in the forward reserve market. Demand response resources will also be able to receive obligations and compensation in the forward capacity market that are "fully comparable with dispatchable resources," the ISO said.

The tariff revisions specifically relate to several issues, including: energy market offers, price formation and settlements, provisions for spinning reserves, and the forward capacity market.

The ISO noted the revisions "were unanimously supported by NEPOOL’s technical committees and were similarly unanimously supported by the NEPOOL Participants Committee (with one abstention)." If federal regulators sign off, the new market rules will go into effect June 1, 2018.

Key Points:

  • The New England ISO and the New England Power Pool Participants Committee last month jointly submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) revisions to Market Rule 1, with a goal of fully integrating demand response into the region's wholesale electricity markets on June 1, 2018.

  • The proposal caps a series of filings that began with the ISO’s compliance related to FERC Order 745, which set standards for demand response in wholesale markets and brought the resource under the agency's jurisdiction.

  • Once fully integrated, demand response resources would be able to participate directly in the New England day-ahead and real-time energy markets, while also providing other services.

Read More:

Solar Eclipse Won't Leave New Jersey Without Lights, Power

NJ Spotlight | August 3, 2017

Up to 2,500 megawatts of solar generation will be temporarily affected by the eclipse, but grid operator has plenty of power in reserve

Solar eclipse
When the day starts turning to night later this month, there’s no cause for alarm. At least the lights will go on.

Or that’s the assurance being given by the nation’s largest power grid operator, PJM Interconnection.

The total solar eclipse on August 21 will reduce generation from solar resources, whether they’re rooftop panels on a home or a solar farm providing power to the grid. PJM expects a temporary reduction of up to 2,500 megawatts.

Not to worry says the grid operator. It will use its sufficient reserves for replacement power.

The total eclipse will only be visible to portions of the United States, on a path from Oregon to South Carolina. A partial eclipse, in which about 73 percent of the sun will be blocked, will be visible from 1:22 p.m. to 4 p.m. in New Jersey.

“Certainly, this is an unusual solar event, but as far as potential impacts to the grid, PJM and its members are prepared,’’ said PJM president and CEO Andrew Ott. “While this is an anticipated event, we routinely plan and prepare for unpredictable events or things that can’t be forecast far in advance, such as severe storms and waves.’’

The exact amount of solar power affected by the eclipse will depend on how sunny or cloudy it is that afternoon. At its peak, the sun will look like a crescent, according to officials.

Certain states will experience a greater impact, including North Carolina, which will experience a complete solar eclipse, and New Jersey, which has more photovoltaic generation than most states served by PJM.

In New Jersey, 77,382 homes and businesses have installed solar panels as of June 30, according to the state Board of Public Utilities. The state has more than 2,000 megawatts of installed capacity.

Within PJM, about 500 megawatts of solar generation are connected to the grid. Another 2,000 megawatts are generated by rooftop solar panels that serve individual customers. When those panels are not running, the homes draw power from the grid, increasing demand on the system.

Although growing in the region, solar generation makes up less than 1 percent of PJM’s 185,000 megawatts of generation capacity. Generally, 1 megawatt can power up to 1,000 homes.

Read More:

Natural Gas and Oil Market Update


Oil Prices Rise As The U.S. Rig Count Falls | August 3, 2017

The number of active oil rigs in the United States fell this week by 1 rig as drillers in the United States proceed more cautiously than earlier in the year. Combined, the total oil and gas rig count in the US now stands at 954 rigs, up 490 rigs from the year prior, with oil rigs in the United States decreasing by 1 and gas rigs decreasing by 3. Canada, which added 14 oil and gas rigs the week prior, lost 3 rigs this week, with the number of oil rigs falling by 5 and gas rigs increasing by 2.

Prices lost a bit of ground on the week as signs point to the resilience of US oil producers who continue to take low oil prices on the chin. While down $0.13 week over week, WTI was trading up 0.84% on the day at $49.44 at 12:16pm. Brent crude trading up 0.73% on the day at $52.39.


Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Stockpiles Only 3% Above Five-Year Average

FX Empire | August 3, 2017

Natural gas prices retreated on Thursday and are continuing the move early Friday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 20 billion cubic feet for the week-ending July 28. Traders were looking for a reading of about 22 BCF. September Natural Gas futures settled at $2.800, down $0.011 or -0.39%.

The EIA draw may have been greater than the mid-point of the estimates, but it was not enough to get bullish traders excited enough to challenge the huge short position in the market. Besides, the data is stale and most traders are focusing on the two-week weather forecast that doesn’t bode well for bullish investors.

EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Working gas in storage was 3,010 Bcf as of Friday, July 28, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 20 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 279 Bcf less than last year at this time and 87 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,923 Bcf. At 3,010 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

NYMEX Natural Gas Week-to-Week Price Change NYMEX Natural Gas Week-to-Week Price Change

Natural Gas Futures - Five Year Price ($ per mmBtu)

NYMEX Natural Gas Week-to-Week Price Change - Five Yearly Snapshot

Disclaimer: The information contained in these reports is gathered from public and/or internal sources and is presented solely for the convenience of our customers and Newsletter Subscribers. Patriot Energy Group makes no representation or warranty, express or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the information set forth in this newsletter, and Patriot Energy shall not have any liability to any person or entity resulting from use of this information in any way.
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